Bitcoin (BTC) Could Retest $60K in February, According to Options Data

Bitcoin (BTC) is experiencing significant volatility and has been plunging downwards after rejecting $71,000 on Sunday. BTC had a weak start in 2026, recording a decline of about 23% – 24% over the first 50 days of 2026.

Summary

• Professional traders are paying a 13% premium for downside protection as Bitcoin struggles to maintain a support level above $66,000.
• Currently, stocks and gold remain strong; on the other hand, Bitcoin recorded $910 outflows, indicating caution among institutional investors.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price has fallen more than 40%, and even stocks and precious metals have been attracting more buyers. Major capital shifts from Bitcoin to assets like gold and global equities, causing significant price volatility. The institutionalization of Bitcoin through ETFs and futures has helped increase the BTC prices. However, two major ETFs, BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC, experienced significant outflows, suggesting a shift in investor sentiment and volatility.

Bitcoin is trading between $60K and $70K, imitating patterns of the 2021 crash. Investors have been successfully defending the $66,000 level throughout the week. However, the options market indicates growing fear among professional traders and a desire to avoid downside price exposure.

Although the stock market and gold prices are moving on with relative strength, traders seem to be betting on a $66,000 retest rather than acting on price dips.

Bitcoin Options Data

On Thursday, Bitcoin put options traded at a 13% premium relative to call instruments. Under neutral conditions, the delta skew metric has sustained levels outside the neutral range for four weeks, ranging from -6% and +6%, indicating steady demand for upside and downside strategies. The levels have been sustained consecutively for the past four weeks, signalling that the sentiment is leaning towards caution.

A bearish bias is noticeable in the neutral-to-bearish positioning seen in Bitcoin options. As per Laevitas data, the most traded strategies on major exchanges like Deribit include bear diagonal spreads and short risk reversals, which profit from downward price movement.

Weak Institutional Demand for Bitcoin ETFs Stirs Up Dissatisfaction

To examine traders’ risk appetite, analysts are looking at stablecoin demand in China. During investor exit, the stablecoin demand indicator drops below parity. Bitcoin ETFs recorded the third consecutive day of net outflows on February 19, 2026, losing around $165.96 million.

Although the Bitcoin ETFs narrative promised institutional accumulation, the current state and rising exchange balances indicate insufficient demand to absorb the selling pressure. One reason is that Bitcoin’s integration with Wall Street has created structural vulnerabilities.

Structural vulnerabilities have emerged as hedge funds retreat from trades due to narrowed spreads, which has reduced a significant source of buying volume. Additionally, yield-generating products and dependency on U.S. capital magnify price swings and limit Bitcoin’s ability to respond to positive news.

Bitcoin: Current Market Scenario

As mentioned before, Bitcoin is moving along a short-term bearish trend within a consolidation phase. Traders are currently monitoring a range between $65,650 and $68,600. The immediate resistance level is $68,605, and a potential breakout could push the price towards $74,265. The immediate support level is $65,650 and $64,000.

The 14-day RSI is around 35.54, indicating the asset is approaching an oversold phase. It is trading below both the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, signalling a bearish structure.

Analysts consider that the ETF outflows do not mean the BTC ETF is a failed experiment. Bitcoin options signal a further downward trend, and traders are likely to stay extremely cautious until the BTC price breaks the resistance levels. Analysts are closely examining the key support and resistance levels that could reverse the current short-term bearish trend.

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